Seats & Swings

Victorian State Election 2026

Forecast Overview

26ALP
−30
+22
50LNP

Latest Update

21 September 2026

Initial forecast has been published. Keep in mind that this forecast will change over the coming weeks as some seats require a further depth of research than I've conducted as yet. In the coming weeks I'll be coming back to the ONP vote, independent candidates, and correctly accounting for Victorian Socialists in the inner city. Preference flows will also need to be checked and I'll likely implement more seat-by-seat customisation.

In this initial forecast, I'm taking a bearish stance on ONP and instead predicting that a few points of support shown in recent polling (~4%) will transfer to the Coalition. I believe Jess Wilson's position as a stronger opposition than was the case in SA, Farrer, or Secret Harbour will help swing these points back to the Coalition over the next few weeks.

Interactive Map

Gains are indicated by shaded electorates. Select a seat to see details.

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Select a seat

Hover an electorate on the map to see first preferences and the two-candidate preferred result. Click a seat to pin it.

Labor
Liberal
Nationals
Greens
One Nation

Individual Seat Forecasts

Expand a seat for first preferences, two-candidate preferred results, and preference flow details.

SeatResultMarginSwing
Albert ParkALP Hold1.7−9.5%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal31.2%38.3%+7.1%
ALPLabor36.4%28.3%−8.1%
GRNGreens20.9%22.3%+1.4%
ONPOne Nation0.0%7.2%+7.2%
OTHOther5.6%3.9%−1.7%
INDIndependent5.9%0.0%−5.9%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—51.7%−9.5%
LIBLiberal—48.3%+9.5%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

51.7%−9.5%48.3%
AshwoodLIB Gain fromALP0.7−6.9%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal37.2%37.0%−0.2%
ALPLabor40.3%29.4%−10.9%
GRNGreens14.8%15.3%+0.5%
ONPOne Nation0.0%11.2%+11.2%
OTHOther6.2%4.1%−2.1%
INDIndependent1.6%3.0%+1.4%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—50.7%+6.9%
ALPLabor—49.3%−6.9%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

49.3%−6.9%50.7%
BassLIB Gain fromALP2.7−50.2%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ONPOne Nation0.0%29.3%+29.3%
LIBLiberal30.1%27.5%−2.6%
ALPLabor32.6%16.2%−16.4%
NATNationals13.3%10.3%−3.0%
OTHOther13.5%8.7%−4.8%
GRNGreens8.1%8.0%−0.1%
INDIndependent2.3%0.0%−2.3%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—52.7%+2.9%
ONPOne Nation—47.3%+47.3%

Liberal

Liberal

GAIN

One Nation

One Nation

52.7%+2.9%47.3%
BayswaterLIB Gain fromALP9.1−13.3%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal35.6%36.7%+1.1%
ALPLabor41.3%25.3%−16.0%
ONPOne Nation0.0%18.9%+18.9%
OTHOther13.6%9.9%−3.7%
GRNGreens7.4%9.2%+1.8%
INDIndependent2.1%0.0%−2.1%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—59.1%+13.3%
ALPLabor—40.9%−13.3%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

40.9%−13.3%59.1%
BellarineLIB Gain fromALP2.8−11.3%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal33.1%35.9%+2.8%
ALPLabor42.6%29.6%−13.0%
GRNGreens11.7%14.5%+2.8%
ONPOne Nation0.0%13.9%+13.9%
OTHOther7.9%6.1%−1.8%
INDIndependent4.6%0.0%−4.6%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—52.8%+11.3%
ALPLabor—47.2%−11.3%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

47.2%−11.3%52.8%
BenambraONP Gain fromLIB3.5—
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ONPOne Nation0.0%39.0%+39.0%
LIBLiberal44.9%29.0%−15.9%
INDIndependent31.7%12.0%−19.7%
ALPLabor13.1%11.5%−1.6%
OTHOther6.5%4.5%−2.0%
GRNGreens3.9%4.0%+0.1%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ONPOne Nation—53.5%+53.5%
LIBLiberal—46.5%−4.4%

One Nation

One Nation

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

53.5%+53.5%46.5%
Bendigo EastNAT Gain fromALP5.0−15.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
NATNationals0.0%33.3%+33.3%
ALPLabor48.3%27.5%−20.8%
ONPOne Nation5.7%22.6%+16.9%
GRNGreens8.7%11.3%+2.6%
OTHOther6.4%5.3%−1.1%
LIBLiberal27.4%0.0%−27.4%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
NATNationals—55.0%+55.0%
ALPLabor—45.0%−15.8%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Nationals

Nationals

45.0%−15.8%55.0%
Bendigo WestLIB Gain fromALP1.5−16.1%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor46.5%28.1%−18.4%
LIBLiberal25.0%27.5%+2.5%
ONPOne Nation0.0%18.5%+18.5%
GRNGreens11.5%14.5%+3.0%
OTHOther14.6%11.4%−3.2%
INDIndependent2.4%0.0%−2.4%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—51.5%+16.1%
ALPLabor—48.5%−16.1%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

48.5%−16.1%51.5%
BentleighLIB Gain fromALP2.3−10.3%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal36.3%37.5%+1.2%
ALPLabor45.8%33.6%−12.2%
ONPOne Nation0.0%13.0%+13.0%
GRNGreens10.7%12.0%+1.3%
OTHOther5.4%3.9%−1.5%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—52.3%+10.3%
ALPLabor—47.7%−10.3%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

47.7%−10.3%52.3%
BerwickLIB Hold13.6−8.9%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal45.2%40.7%−4.5%
ALPLabor35.8%22.2%−13.6%
ONPOne Nation0.0%22.0%+22.0%
GRNGreens9.7%9.6%−0.1%
OTHOther9.2%5.5%−3.7%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—63.6%+8.9%
ALPLabor—36.4%−8.9%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

36.4%−8.9%63.6%
Box HillLIB Gain fromALP0.6−7.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal35.2%35.8%+0.6%
ALPLabor41.3%28.8%−12.5%
GRNGreens14.1%15.0%+0.9%
ONPOne Nation0.0%11.8%+11.8%
OTHOther8.3%5.6%−2.7%
INDIndependent1.0%3.0%+2.0%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—50.6%+7.8%
ALPLabor—49.4%−7.8%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

49.4%−7.8%50.6%
BrightonLIB Hold9.3−4.2%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal45.6%48.7%+3.1%
ALPLabor24.7%15.7%−9.0%
GRNGreens13.8%13.7%−0.1%
INDIndependent9.1%10.0%+0.9%
ONPOne Nation0.0%6.8%+6.8%
OTHOther6.2%5.1%−1.1%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—59.3%+4.2%
ALPLabor—40.7%−4.2%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

40.7%−4.2%59.3%
BroadmeadowsALP Hold5.9−9.6%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor45.7%36.0%−9.7%
LIBLiberal23.1%23.7%+0.6%
ONPOne Nation0.0%15.0%+15.0%
OTHOther18.0%13.0%−5.0%
GRNGreens8.4%12.3%+3.9%
INDIndependent3.8%0.0%−3.8%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—55.9%−9.6%
LIBLiberal—44.1%+9.6%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

55.9%−9.6%44.1%
BrunswickGRN Hold10.9+2.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
GRNGreens43.6%47.5%+3.9%
ALPLabor28.5%22.2%−6.3%
LIBLiberal10.9%12.7%+1.8%
OTHOther15.7%11.0%−4.7%
ONPOne Nation0.0%6.6%+6.6%
INDIndependent1.3%0.0%−1.3%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
GRNGreens—60.9%−2.8%
ALPLabor—39.1%+2.8%

Greens

Greens

Labor

Labor

60.9%−2.8%39.1%
BulleenLIB Hold14.7−8.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal48.1%49.2%+1.1%
ALPLabor32.7%21.5%−11.2%
ONPOne Nation0.0%12.4%+12.4%
GRNGreens10.7%10.6%−0.1%
OTHOther7.6%6.3%−1.3%
INDIndependent1.0%0.0%−1.0%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—64.7%+8.8%
ALPLabor—35.3%−8.8%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

35.3%−8.8%64.7%
BundooraALP Hold5.4−7.3%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor47.8%36.7%−11.1%
LIBLiberal27.7%24.3%−3.4%
ONPOne Nation0.0%16.5%+16.5%
GRNGreens13.2%13.1%−0.1%
OTHOther10.3%6.4%−3.9%
INDIndependent0.0%3.0%+3.0%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—55.4%−7.3%
LIBLiberal—44.6%+7.3%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

55.4%−7.3%44.6%
CarrumALP Hold1.1−8.7%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor49.9%37.4%−12.5%
LIBLiberal30.4%28.5%−1.9%
ONPOne Nation0.0%19.1%+19.1%
GRNGreens7.6%8.5%+0.9%
OTHOther9.9%6.5%−3.4%
INDIndependent2.3%0.0%−2.3%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—51.1%−8.7%
LIBLiberal—48.9%+8.7%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

51.1%−8.7%48.9%
CaulfieldLIB Hold11.9−9.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal46.3%52.7%+6.4%
ALPLabor27.8%19.6%−8.2%
GRNGreens15.8%17.6%+1.8%
ONPOne Nation0.0%6.9%+6.9%
OTHOther3.6%3.2%−0.4%
INDIndependent6.5%0.0%−6.5%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—61.9%+9.8%
ALPLabor—38.1%−9.8%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

38.1%−9.8%61.9%
ClarindaALP Hold0.4−9.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor45.5%35.7%−9.8%
LIBLiberal28.6%29.3%+0.7%
ONPOne Nation0.0%17.6%+17.6%
GRNGreens8.0%10.0%+2.0%
OTHOther10.2%7.4%−2.8%
INDIndependent7.8%0.0%−7.8%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—50.4%−9.8%
LIBLiberal—49.6%+9.8%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

50.4%−9.8%49.6%
CranbourneONP Gain fromALP1.7−10.7%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor46.2%30.3%−15.9%
ONPOne Nation0.0%25.5%+25.5%
LIBLiberal27.5%25.0%−2.5%
OTHOther20.1%12.8%−7.3%
GRNGreens5.6%6.4%+0.8%
INDIndependent0.6%0.0%−0.6%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ONPOne Nation—51.7%+51.7%
ALPLabor—48.3%−10.7%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

One Nation

One Nation

48.3%−10.7%51.7%
CroydonLIB Hold7.5−6.1%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal43.0%36.6%−6.4%
ALPLabor34.1%23.0%−11.1%
ONPOne Nation0.0%16.2%+16.2%
GRNGreens10.8%11.9%+1.1%
OTHOther12.1%8.3%−3.8%
INDIndependent0.0%4.0%+4.0%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—57.5%+6.1%
ALPLabor—42.5%−6.1%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

42.5%−6.1%57.5%
DandenongALP Hold7.5−10.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor54.9%40.0%−14.9%
LIBLiberal23.9%21.6%−2.3%
ONPOne Nation0.0%20.9%+20.9%
GRNGreens8.1%9.1%+1.0%
OTHOther13.1%8.4%−4.7%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—57.5%−10.8%
ONPOne Nation—42.5%+42.5%

Labor

Labor

One Nation

One Nation

57.5%−10.8%42.5%
EildonLIB Hold8.7−43.0%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal47.5%37.4%−10.1%
ONPOne Nation0.0%29.2%+29.2%
ALPLabor29.0%16.5%−12.5%
GRNGreens11.2%10.7%−0.5%
OTHOther9.9%6.2%−3.7%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—58.7%+1.7%
ONPOne Nation—41.3%+41.3%

Liberal

Liberal

One Nation

One Nation

58.7%+1.7%41.3%
ElthamLIB Gain fromALP1.9−10.9%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal35.6%36.8%+1.2%
ALPLabor44.5%28.9%−15.6%
GRNGreens13.4%15.5%+2.1%
ONPOne Nation0.0%14.2%+14.2%
OTHOther6.4%4.6%−1.8%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—51.9%+10.9%
ALPLabor—48.1%−10.9%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

48.1%−10.9%51.9%
EssendonALP Hold4.1−8.4%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal29.5%30.9%+1.4%
ALPLabor41.1%27.3%−13.8%
GRNGreens15.2%20.1%+4.9%
ONPOne Nation0.0%12.5%+12.5%
OTHOther14.3%9.2%−5.1%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—54.1%−8.4%
LIBLiberal—45.9%+8.4%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

54.1%−8.4%45.9%
EurekaLIB Gain fromALP6.8−14.0%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal31.6%29.4%−2.2%
ONPOne Nation0.0%25.2%+25.2%
ALPLabor41.0%24.5%−16.5%
GRNGreens10.8%11.5%+0.7%
OTHOther14.2%9.4%−4.8%
INDIndependent2.4%0.0%−2.4%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—56.8%+14.0%
ALPLabor—43.2%−14.0%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

43.2%−14.0%56.8%
EuroaNAT Hold3.4−40.1%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ONPOne Nation0.0%35.9%+35.9%
NATNationals31.9%32.8%+0.9%
ALPLabor30.4%17.7%−12.7%
OTHOther10.5%7.5%−3.0%
GRNGreens5.3%6.1%+0.8%
LIBLiberal21.8%0.0%−21.8%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
NATNationals—53.4%−6.5%
ONPOne Nation—46.6%+46.6%

Nationals

Nationals

One Nation

One Nation

53.4%−6.5%46.6%
EvelynLIB Hold16.1−10.7%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal46.7%41.9%−4.8%
ONPOne Nation0.0%23.5%+23.5%
ALPLabor32.7%18.8%−13.9%
GRNGreens9.3%9.3%—
OTHOther10.3%6.5%−3.8%
INDIndependent1.0%0.0%−1.0%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—66.1%+10.7%
ALPLabor—33.9%−10.7%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

33.9%−10.7%66.1%
FootscrayALP Hold5.4+1.2%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor43.1%29.0%−14.1%
GRNGreens22.4%27.9%+5.5%
LIBLiberal17.9%20.4%+2.5%
ONPOne Nation0.0%12.3%+12.3%
OTHOther16.6%10.4%−6.2%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—55.4%+1.2%
GRNGreens—44.6%−1.2%

Labor

Labor

Greens

Greens

55.4%+1.2%44.6%
FrankstonLIB Gain fromALP3.9−12.6%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal33.0%32.6%−0.4%
ALPLabor41.5%26.7%−14.8%
ONPOne Nation0.0%16.6%+16.6%
GRNGreens12.7%12.5%−0.2%
OTHOther9.7%6.6%−3.1%
INDIndependent0.9%5.0%+4.1%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—53.9%+12.6%
ALPLabor—46.1%−12.6%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

46.1%−12.6%53.9%
GeelongALP Hold2.8−11.9%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor46.4%32.7%−13.7%
LIBLiberal27.2%26.2%−1.0%
ONPOne Nation0.0%18.7%+18.7%
GRNGreens15.3%17.0%+1.7%
OTHOther7.9%5.4%−2.5%
INDIndependent1.0%0.0%−1.0%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—52.8%−11.9%
LIBLiberal—47.2%+11.9%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

52.8%−11.9%47.2%
Gippsland EastNAT Hold2.2−25.4%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ONPOne Nation0.0%38.6%+38.6%
NATNationals63.3%36.4%−26.9%
ALPLabor17.0%9.9%−7.1%
OTHOther13.3%8.5%−4.8%
GRNGreens6.4%6.6%+0.2%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
NATNationals—52.2%−22.4%
ONPOne Nation—47.8%+47.8%

Nationals

Nationals

One Nation

One Nation

52.2%−22.4%47.8%
Gippsland SouthNAT Hold8.3−34.4%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
NATNationals53.3%39.4%−13.9%
ONPOne Nation0.0%31.8%+31.8%
ALPLabor23.4%14.2%−9.2%
GRNGreens8.4%8.4%—
OTHOther9.3%6.2%−3.1%
INDIndependent5.7%0.0%−5.7%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
NATNationals—58.3%−7.3%
ONPOne Nation—41.7%+41.7%

Nationals

Nationals

One Nation

One Nation

58.3%−7.3%41.7%
Glen WaverleyLIB Gain fromALP5.5−8.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal40.2%40.1%−0.1%
ALPLabor40.6%30.4%−10.2%
ONPOne Nation0.0%12.3%+12.3%
GRNGreens9.6%10.6%+1.0%
OTHOther9.6%6.6%−3.0%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—55.5%+8.8%
ALPLabor—44.5%−8.8%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

44.5%−8.8%55.5%
GreenvaleONP Gain fromALP0.8−7.9%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor41.5%29.6%−11.9%
LIBLiberal25.4%25.1%−0.3%
ONPOne Nation0.0%24.2%+24.2%
OTHOther20.9%14.6%−6.3%
GRNGreens5.8%6.5%+0.7%
INDIndependent6.4%0.0%−6.4%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ONPOne Nation—50.8%+50.8%
ALPLabor—49.2%−7.9%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

One Nation

One Nation

49.2%−7.9%50.8%
HastingsLIB Gain fromALP8.8−10.2%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal39.8%36.5%−3.3%
ALPLabor37.3%25.7%−11.6%
ONPOne Nation0.0%20.4%+20.4%
GRNGreens10.0%9.9%−0.1%
OTHOther11.7%7.5%−4.2%
INDIndependent1.3%0.0%−1.3%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—58.8%+10.2%
ALPLabor—41.2%−10.2%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

41.2%−10.2%58.8%
HawthornLIB Hold4.9−48.3%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal43.6%48.1%+4.5%
INDIndependent20.0%18.0%−2.0%
ALPLabor22.1%14.5%−7.6%
GRNGreens11.1%11.2%+0.1%
ONPOne Nation0.0%5.5%+5.5%
OTHOther3.2%2.7%−0.5%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—54.9%+3.2%
INDIndependent—45.1%+45.1%

Independent

Independent

Liberal

Liberal

45.1%+45.1%54.9%
IvanhoeALP Hold5.7−7.1%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor42.7%33.9%−8.8%
LIBLiberal31.0%31.0%—
GRNGreens19.2%20.0%+0.8%
ONPOne Nation0.0%11.6%+11.6%
OTHOther5.3%3.5%−1.8%
INDIndependent1.8%0.0%−1.8%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—55.7%−7.1%
LIBLiberal—44.3%+7.1%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

55.7%−7.1%44.3%
KalkalloALP Hold6.6−9.9%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor53.9%40.5%−13.4%
ONPOne Nation0.0%22.2%+22.2%
LIBLiberal22.9%20.9%−2.0%
OTHOther16.4%10.6%−5.8%
GRNGreens5.3%5.8%+0.5%
INDIndependent1.5%0.0%−1.5%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—56.6%−9.9%
ONPOne Nation—43.4%+43.4%

Labor

Labor

One Nation

One Nation

56.6%−9.9%43.4%
KewLIB Hold5.4−46.0%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal44.3%49.1%+4.8%
INDIndependent21.1%22.0%+0.9%
ALPLabor22.7%12.9%−9.8%
GRNGreens8.3%7.6%−0.7%
ONPOne Nation0.0%5.4%+5.4%
OTHOther3.6%3.0%−0.6%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—55.4%+1.4%
INDIndependent—44.6%+44.6%

Independent

Independent

Liberal

Liberal

44.6%+44.6%55.4%
KororoitALP Hold0.4−14.1%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor43.3%32.5%−10.8%
LIBLiberal24.3%23.8%−0.5%
ONPOne Nation0.0%19.4%+19.4%
OTHOther23.5%16.3%−7.2%
GRNGreens6.6%8.0%+1.4%
INDIndependent2.4%0.0%−2.4%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—50.4%−14.1%
LIBLiberal—49.6%+14.1%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

50.4%−14.1%49.6%
LaraALP Hold3.3−12.6%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor49.7%32.6%−17.1%
LIBLiberal25.7%24.2%−1.5%
ONPOne Nation0.0%23.8%+23.8%
GRNGreens11.3%12.3%+1.0%
OTHOther10.7%7.1%−3.6%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—53.3%−12.6%
ONPOne Nation—46.7%+46.7%

Labor

Labor

One Nation

One Nation

53.3%−12.6%46.7%
LavertonALP Hold5.2−13.2%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor45.9%33.6%−12.3%
LIBLiberal22.2%21.2%−1.0%
ONPOne Nation0.0%18.6%+18.6%
OTHOther21.6%14.5%−7.1%
GRNGreens9.4%12.1%+2.7%
INDIndependent1.0%0.0%−1.0%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—55.2%−13.2%
LIBLiberal—44.8%+13.2%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

55.2%−13.2%44.8%
LowanNAT Hold13.2−28.4%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
NATNationals58.9%48.1%−10.8%
ONPOne Nation0.0%28.3%+28.3%
ALPLabor19.6%11.4%−8.2%
OTHOther9.9%6.3%−3.6%
GRNGreens6.0%5.9%−0.1%
INDIndependent5.5%0.0%−5.5%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
NATNationals—63.2%−8.4%
ONPOne Nation—36.8%+36.8%

Nationals

Nationals

One Nation

One Nation

63.2%−8.4%36.8%
MacedonLIB Gain fromALP9.7−19.2%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal30.0%33.2%+3.2%
ONPOne Nation3.6%26.3%+22.7%
ALPLabor41.4%21.6%−19.8%
GRNGreens12.5%13.9%+1.4%
OTHOther7.0%5.0%−2.0%
INDIndependent5.4%0.0%−5.4%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—59.7%+19.2%
ALPLabor—40.3%−19.2%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

40.3%−19.2%59.7%
MalvernLIB Hold12.2−4.1%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal50.9%51.9%+1.0%
ALPLabor25.2%19.7%−5.5%
GRNGreens15.0%16.7%+1.7%
ONPOne Nation0.0%8.3%+8.3%
OTHOther3.8%3.4%−0.4%
INDIndependent1.5%0.0%−1.5%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—62.2%+4.1%
ALPLabor—37.8%−4.1%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

37.8%−4.1%62.2%
MelbourneGRN Hold18.1−39.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
GRNGreens37.3%39.1%+1.8%
ALPLabor30.7%23.9%−6.8%
LIBLiberal17.7%21.0%+3.3%
OTHOther14.4%9.4%−5.0%
ONPOne Nation0.0%6.6%+6.6%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
GRNGreens—68.1%+7.9%
LIBLiberal—31.9%+31.9%

Greens

Greens

Liberal

Liberal

68.1%+7.9%31.9%
MeltonONP Gain fromALP6.8−11.4%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ONPOne Nation0.0%28.8%+28.8%
LIBLiberal24.3%24.9%+0.6%
ALPLabor37.7%22.7%−15.0%
OTHOther24.3%17.6%−6.7%
GRNGreens4.5%6.0%+1.5%
INDIndependent9.0%0.0%−9.0%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ONPOne Nation—56.8%+56.8%
ALPLabor—43.2%−11.4%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

One Nation

One Nation

43.2%−11.4%56.8%
MilduraNAT Hold6.7—
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
NATNationals25.9%33.2%+7.3%
INDIndependent33.9%30.0%−3.9%
ONPOne Nation0.0%25.6%+25.6%
OTHOther9.5%5.0%−4.5%
ALPLabor6.5%4.1%−2.4%
GRNGreens2.3%2.1%−0.2%
LIBLiberal19.1%0.0%−19.1%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
NATNationals—56.7%+5.5%
INDIndependent—43.3%−5.5%

Independent

Independent

Nationals

Nationals

43.3%−5.5%56.7%
Mill ParkONP Gain fromALP5.5−17.1%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ONPOne Nation0.0%30.9%+30.9%
ALPLabor49.9%25.4%−24.5%
LIBLiberal25.9%23.8%−2.1%
OTHOther16.9%11.5%−5.4%
GRNGreens7.3%8.4%+1.1%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ONPOne Nation—55.5%+55.5%
ALPLabor—44.5%−17.1%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

One Nation

One Nation

44.5%−17.1%55.5%
MonbulkLIB Gain fromALP6.0−13.6%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal29.5%28.9%−0.6%
ONPOne Nation0.0%25.8%+25.8%
ALPLabor36.1%22.6%−13.5%
GRNGreens15.0%16.4%+1.4%
OTHOther9.2%6.3%−2.9%
INDIndependent5.3%0.0%−5.3%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—56.0%+13.6%
ALPLabor—44.0%−13.6%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

44.0%−13.6%56.0%
MordiallocALP Hold1.4−6.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor44.0%36.6%−7.4%
LIBLiberal31.4%31.7%+0.3%
ONPOne Nation0.0%14.7%+14.7%
GRNGreens10.3%12.1%+1.8%
OTHOther7.0%4.9%−2.1%
INDIndependent7.4%0.0%−7.4%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—51.4%−6.8%
LIBLiberal—48.6%+6.8%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

51.4%−6.8%48.6%
MorningtonLIB Hold11.3—
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal42.6%43.4%+0.8%
ONPOne Nation0.0%17.5%+17.5%
ALPLabor22.0%14.3%−7.7%
INDIndependent22.4%13.0%−9.4%
GRNGreens6.4%7.1%+0.7%
OTHOther6.6%4.7%−1.9%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—61.3%+10.6%
INDIndependent—38.7%−10.6%

Independent

Independent

Liberal

Liberal

38.7%−10.6%61.3%
MorwellONP Gain fromNAT12.2−7.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ONPOne Nation6.1%40.1%+34.0%
ALPLabor31.4%22.0%−9.4%
NATNationals22.9%21.3%−1.6%
OTHOther14.0%10.9%−3.1%
GRNGreens4.2%5.7%+1.5%
LIBLiberal15.5%0.0%−15.5%
INDIndependent5.8%0.0%−5.8%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ONPOne Nation—62.2%+62.2%
ALPLabor—37.8%−7.8%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

One Nation

One Nation

37.8%−7.8%62.2%
MulgraveALP Hold4.8−6.0%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor51.1%37.2%−13.9%
ONPOne Nation0.0%21.8%+21.8%
LIBLiberal17.2%20.0%+2.8%
INDIndependent18.0%9.0%−9.0%
GRNGreens5.1%7.1%+2.0%
OTHOther8.3%4.9%−3.4%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—54.8%−6.0%
ONPOne Nation—45.2%+45.2%

Labor

Labor

One Nation

One Nation

54.8%−6.0%45.2%
Murray PlainsNAT Hold6.3−26.6%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
NATNationals61.8%42.3%−19.5%
ONPOne Nation0.0%35.5%+35.5%
ALPLabor18.8%10.3%−8.5%
OTHOther13.0%7.9%−5.1%
GRNGreens3.9%4.0%+0.1%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
NATNationals—56.3%−17.1%
ONPOne Nation—43.7%+43.7%

Nationals

Nationals

One Nation

One Nation

56.3%−17.1%43.7%
NarracanLIB Hold2.7—
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ONPOne Nation6.0%35.0%+29.0%
LIBLiberal48.6%33.3%−15.3%
ALPLabor0.0%12.9%+12.9%
OTHOther23.3%10.2%−13.1%
GRNGreens11.1%8.6%−2.5%
INDIndependent11.0%0.0%−11.0%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—52.7%−10.3%
ONPOne Nation—47.3%+47.3%

Liberal

Liberal

One Nation

One Nation

52.7%−10.3%47.3%
Narre Warren NorthONP Gain fromALP2.8−11.5%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor46.8%29.7%−17.1%
ONPOne Nation0.0%27.7%+27.7%
LIBLiberal30.5%26.7%−3.8%
OTHOther13.8%8.5%−5.3%
GRNGreens6.8%7.4%+0.6%
INDIndependent2.2%0.0%−2.2%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ONPOne Nation—52.8%+52.8%
ALPLabor—47.2%−11.5%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

One Nation

One Nation

47.2%−11.5%52.8%
Narre Warren SouthLIB Gain fromALP4.7−13.0%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor48.0%29.8%−18.2%
LIBLiberal31.5%27.8%−3.7%
ONPOne Nation0.0%24.8%+24.8%
OTHOther13.3%8.3%−5.0%
GRNGreens6.6%7.3%+0.7%
INDIndependent0.7%2.0%+1.3%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—54.7%+13.0%
ALPLabor—45.3%−13.0%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

45.3%−13.0%54.7%
NepeanLIB Hold17.0−10.6%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal48.1%45.1%−3.0%
ONPOne Nation0.0%20.3%+20.3%
ALPLabor32.6%18.8%−13.8%
GRNGreens8.8%9.2%+0.4%
OTHOther9.3%6.6%−2.7%
INDIndependent1.2%0.0%−1.2%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—67.0%+10.6%
ALPLabor—33.0%−10.6%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

33.0%−10.6%67.0%
NiddrieALP Hold1.4−5.3%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor44.0%37.3%−6.7%
LIBLiberal34.0%30.1%−3.9%
ONPOne Nation0.0%15.4%+15.4%
OTHOther14.7%9.2%−5.5%
GRNGreens7.4%8.0%+0.6%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—51.4%−5.3%
LIBLiberal—48.6%+5.3%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

51.4%−5.3%48.6%
NorthcoteALP Hold2.2+2.0%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
GRNGreens30.0%33.4%+3.4%
ALPLabor40.6%30.3%−10.3%
LIBLiberal13.4%16.0%+2.6%
ONPOne Nation0.0%10.2%+10.2%
OTHOther14.7%10.1%−4.6%
INDIndependent1.2%0.0%−1.2%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—52.2%+2.0%
GRNGreens—47.8%−2.0%

Labor

Labor

Greens

Greens

52.2%+2.0%47.8%
OakleighALP Hold6.0−7.5%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor45.0%35.5%−9.5%
LIBLiberal29.3%28.6%−0.7%
GRNGreens16.6%17.2%+0.6%
ONPOne Nation0.0%14.7%+14.7%
OTHOther6.1%4.0%−2.1%
INDIndependent0.5%0.0%−0.5%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—56.0%−7.5%
LIBLiberal—44.0%+7.5%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

56.0%−7.5%44.0%
Ovens ValleyNAT Hold11.9−32.2%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
NATNationals52.1%42.3%−9.8%
ONPOne Nation0.0%26.7%+26.7%
ALPLabor20.7%11.6%−9.1%
GRNGreens9.0%7.8%−1.2%
OTHOther10.8%6.6%−4.2%
INDIndependent0.0%5.0%+5.0%
LIBLiberal7.4%0.0%−7.4%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
NATNationals—61.9%−5.9%
ONPOne Nation—38.1%+38.1%

Nationals

Nationals

One Nation

One Nation

61.9%−5.9%38.1%
PakenhamLIB Gain fromALP3.4−50.4%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ONPOne Nation3.4%28.7%+25.3%
LIBLiberal32.4%27.6%−4.8%
ALPLabor33.8%19.1%−14.7%
OTHOther15.6%9.3%−6.3%
INDIndependent8.1%8.0%−0.1%
GRNGreens6.6%7.3%+0.7%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—53.4%+3.8%
ONPOne Nation—46.6%+46.6%

Liberal

Liberal

GAIN

One Nation

One Nation

53.4%+3.8%46.6%
Pascoe ValeALP Hold4.3+2.3%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
GRNGreens22.4%30.6%+8.2%
ALPLabor38.8%28.5%−10.3%
LIBLiberal21.0%22.5%+1.5%
OTHOther13.6%9.5%−4.1%
ONPOne Nation0.0%8.9%+8.9%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—54.3%+2.3%
GRNGreens—45.7%−2.3%

Labor

Labor

Greens

Greens

54.3%+2.3%45.7%
Point CookALP Hold1.6−6.7%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor40.0%29.7%−10.3%
LIBLiberal24.7%24.4%−0.3%
ONPOne Nation0.0%22.5%+22.5%
OTHOther21.5%14.7%−6.8%
GRNGreens6.8%8.7%+1.9%
INDIndependent6.9%0.0%−6.9%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—51.6%−6.7%
ONPOne Nation—48.4%+48.4%

Labor

Labor

One Nation

One Nation

51.6%−6.7%48.4%
PolwarthLIB Hold13.2−11.4%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal42.5%42.1%−0.4%
ONPOne Nation0.0%19.1%+19.1%
ALPLabor29.3%18.2%−11.1%
GRNGreens16.7%15.7%−1.0%
OTHOther7.2%4.9%−2.3%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—63.2%+11.4%
ALPLabor—36.8%−11.4%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

36.8%−11.4%63.2%
PrahranGRN Hold6.5—
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
GRNGreens36.4%37.4%+1.0%
LIBLiberal31.1%35.2%+4.1%
ALPLabor26.6%18.5%−8.1%
ONPOne Nation0.0%5.9%+5.9%
OTHOther4.8%3.0%−1.8%
INDIndependent1.1%0.0%−1.1%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
GRNGreens—56.5%−5.5%
LIBLiberal—43.5%+5.5%

Greens

Greens

Liberal

Liberal

56.5%−5.5%43.5%
PrestonALP Hold11.1+9.0%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor37.6%26.8%−10.8%
LIBLiberal17.3%16.8%−0.5%
GRNGreens15.1%16.5%+1.4%
INDIndependent13.7%15.0%+1.3%
ONPOne Nation0.0%14.2%+14.2%
OTHOther16.2%10.7%−5.5%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—61.1%+9.0%
GRNGreens—38.9%−9.0%

Labor

Labor

Greens

Greens

61.1%+9.0%38.9%
RichmondGRN Hold15.2−42.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
GRNGreens34.7%34.9%+0.2%
ALPLabor32.8%26.5%−6.3%
LIBLiberal18.8%23.7%+4.9%
OTHOther12.7%8.8%−3.9%
ONPOne Nation0.0%6.1%+6.1%
INDIndependent1.0%0.0%−1.0%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
GRNGreens—65.2%+8.0%
LIBLiberal—34.8%+34.8%

Greens

Greens

Liberal

Liberal

65.2%+8.0%34.8%
RingwoodLIB Gain fromALP1.1−8.6%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal33.8%34.4%+0.6%
ALPLabor39.0%25.0%−14.0%
GRNGreens15.5%17.0%+1.5%
ONPOne Nation0.0%12.6%+12.6%
OTHOther11.6%8.2%−3.4%
INDIndependent0.0%2.8%+2.8%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—51.1%+8.6%
ALPLabor—48.9%−8.6%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

48.9%−8.6%51.1%
RiponLIB Gain fromALP7.1−53.0%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal36.1%32.5%−3.6%
ONPOne Nation0.0%27.8%+27.8%
ALPLabor38.5%22.2%−16.3%
OTHOther17.3%11.0%−6.3%
GRNGreens6.0%6.5%+0.5%
INDIndependent2.1%0.0%−2.1%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—57.1%+10.1%
ONPOne Nation—42.9%+42.9%

Liberal

Liberal

GAIN

One Nation

One Nation

57.1%+10.1%42.9%
RowvilleLIB Hold8.8−5.1%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal40.6%37.5%−3.1%
ALPLabor32.9%27.5%−5.4%
ONPOne Nation0.0%20.8%+20.8%
GRNGreens7.0%8.7%+1.7%
OTHOther7.4%5.5%−1.9%
INDIndependent12.1%0.0%−12.1%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—58.8%+5.1%
ALPLabor—41.2%−5.1%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

41.2%−5.1%58.8%
SandringhamLIB Hold12.5−7.5%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal46.4%51.1%+4.7%
ALPLabor25.7%18.9%−6.8%
GRNGreens14.7%15.6%+0.9%
ONPOne Nation0.0%8.6%+8.6%
OTHOther6.3%5.8%−0.5%
INDIndependent6.9%0.0%−6.9%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—62.5%+7.5%
ALPLabor—37.5%−7.5%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

37.5%−7.5%62.5%
SheppartonONP Gain fromNAT6.0—
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ONPOne Nation0.0%38.3%+38.3%
NATNationals32.1%33.0%+0.9%
INDIndependent29.4%12.0%−17.4%
ALPLabor8.0%8.4%+0.4%
OTHOther7.5%4.9%−2.6%
GRNGreens2.6%3.4%+0.8%
LIBLiberal20.6%0.0%−20.6%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ONPOne Nation—56.0%+56.0%
NATNationals—44.0%−12.8%

One Nation

One Nation

GAIN

Nationals

Nationals

56.0%+56.0%44.0%
South BarwonLIB Gain fromALP4.9−14.7%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal32.1%31.8%−0.3%
ALPLabor44.2%20.7%−23.5%
ONPOne Nation0.0%14.6%+14.6%
GRNGreens12.7%13.7%+1.0%
INDIndependent0.0%10.0%+10.0%
OTHOther11.0%9.2%−1.8%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—54.9%+14.7%
ALPLabor—45.1%−14.7%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

45.1%−14.7%54.9%
South-West CoastLIB Hold15.9−7.9%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal42.9%41.9%−1.0%
ALPLabor21.2%21.9%+0.7%
ONPOne Nation0.0%21.2%+21.2%
OTHOther16.1%10.3%−5.8%
GRNGreens5.4%4.7%−0.7%
INDIndependent14.4%0.0%−14.4%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—65.9%+7.9%
ALPLabor—34.1%−7.9%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

34.1%−7.9%65.9%
St AlbansALP Hold3.0−6.6%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor42.3%35.0%−7.3%
LIBLiberal25.4%22.3%−3.1%
ONPOne Nation0.0%18.9%+18.9%
OTHOther22.4%14.5%−7.9%
GRNGreens6.8%9.3%+2.5%
INDIndependent3.2%0.0%−3.2%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—53.0%−6.6%
LIBLiberal—47.0%+6.6%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

53.0%−6.6%47.0%
SunburyLIB Gain fromALP3.4−9.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor43.1%31.9%−11.2%
LIBLiberal31.5%29.3%−2.2%
ONPOne Nation0.0%21.5%+21.5%
OTHOther15.0%9.8%−5.2%
GRNGreens6.5%7.5%+1.0%
INDIndependent3.8%0.0%−3.8%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—53.4%+9.8%
ALPLabor—46.6%−9.8%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

46.6%−9.8%53.4%
SydenhamLIB Gain fromALP7.0−15.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal29.0%29.3%+0.3%
ALPLabor43.5%25.4%−18.1%
ONPOne Nation0.0%22.6%+22.6%
OTHOther21.7%15.5%−6.2%
GRNGreens5.8%7.2%+1.4%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—57.0%+15.8%
ALPLabor—43.0%−15.8%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

43.0%−15.8%57.0%
TarneitALP Hold1.0−11.3%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor46.6%33.5%−13.1%
LIBLiberal26.8%25.1%−1.7%
ONPOne Nation0.0%20.3%+20.3%
OTHOther17.8%11.8%−6.0%
GRNGreens7.4%9.3%+1.9%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—51.0%−11.3%
LIBLiberal—49.0%+11.3%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

51.0%−11.3%49.0%
ThomastownALP Hold1.8−14.0%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor51.8%36.6%−15.2%
ONPOne Nation0.0%28.2%+28.2%
LIBLiberal24.1%19.2%−4.9%
OTHOther17.4%9.8%−7.6%
GRNGreens6.8%6.2%−0.6%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—51.8%−14.0%
ONPOne Nation—48.2%+48.2%

Labor

Labor

One Nation

One Nation

51.8%−14.0%48.2%
WarrandyteLIB Hold13.0−8.7%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal47.4%47.0%−0.4%
ALPLabor33.2%22.4%−10.8%
ONPOne Nation0.0%13.8%+13.8%
GRNGreens11.7%12.5%+0.8%
OTHOther6.3%4.3%−2.0%
INDIndependent1.5%0.0%−1.5%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—63.0%+8.7%
ALPLabor—37.0%−8.7%

Labor

Labor

Liberal

Liberal

37.0%−8.7%63.0%
WendoureeLIB Gain fromALP0.9−12.8%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor47.6%31.9%−15.7%
LIBLiberal29.8%29.1%−0.7%
ONPOne Nation0.0%19.2%+19.2%
GRNGreens10.4%12.1%+1.7%
OTHOther11.2%7.7%−3.5%
INDIndependent1.1%0.0%−1.1%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—50.9%+12.8%
ALPLabor—49.1%−12.8%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

49.1%−12.8%50.9%
WerribeeALP Hold2.0−8.9%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
ALPLabor45.4%32.9%−12.5%
ONPOne Nation0.0%24.0%+24.0%
LIBLiberal25.3%23.8%−1.5%
OTHOther16.6%11.0%−5.6%
GRNGreens6.8%8.3%+1.5%
INDIndependent5.9%0.0%−5.9%
Two-candidate preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
ALPLabor—52.0%−8.9%
ONPOne Nation—48.0%+48.0%

Labor

Labor

One Nation

One Nation

52.0%−8.9%48.0%
WilliamstownLIB Gain fromALP1.3−14.7%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal28.0%26.5%−1.5%
ALPLabor41.5%23.0%−18.5%
ONPOne Nation0.0%17.7%+17.7%
GRNGreens15.4%16.0%+0.6%
OTHOther15.0%9.8%−5.2%
INDIndependent0.0%7.0%+7.0%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—51.3%+14.7%
ALPLabor—48.7%−14.7%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

48.7%−14.7%51.3%
Yan YeanLIB Gain fromALP7.3−11.6%
PartyCandidate2022A2026F±%
LIBLiberal33.9%31.1%−2.8%
ALPLabor41.4%26.5%−14.9%
ONPOne Nation0.0%23.6%+23.6%
OTHOther18.2%11.8%−6.4%
GRNGreens6.4%7.0%+0.6%
Two-party preferred
PartyCandidate—%±%
LIBLiberal—57.3%+11.6%
ALPLabor—42.7%−11.6%

Labor

Labor

GAIN

Liberal

Liberal

42.7%−11.6%57.3%