Forecasts, data, and discussion for Australian elections

Independent insights into historical and upcoming elections, providing forecasts, data, in-depth analysis, and a place to discuss with others.

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Victorian Election 2026

64%Liberal win probability

LIB 64%ALP 28%

Why are One Nation’s preference flows falling?

People are making a huge fuss about the falling preference flows from minor parties, Liberals, and Labor to One Nation. I’m frankly sick of the convoluted discussion surrounding this topic, somehow implying that traditionally-voting major party supporters are becoming increasingly alienated by ONP policy and rhetoric – is it not obvious that the preference flow changes are merely a statistical artefact? It’s no mystery that this pool of remaining Liberal voters – the ones who have remained steadfast in their support despite the strong ONP campaigning and messaging – are less likely to support ONP to the same degree as the prior Liberal voting pool, which used to contain these voters now…

11 Oct 2026

How can we predict the One Nation vote at the upcoming Victorian election?

While we Australians can usually rest a great deal of analysis on polling estimates, understanding how these votes will be distributed across the electorates is always the real challenge. For this reason, while we can see One Nation’s rise in popularity show in polling, and certainly saw the effects in the Farrer and Secret Harbour by-elections, understanding where their votes will land on an…

19 Sep 2026

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Scheduled 28 November 2026

Victorian State Election

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Preference Flow Data 2025

ALP

46.5%

LIB

24.2%

GRN

19.0%

ONP

4.0%

CYA

2.8%

AJP

2.4%

SOPA

1.2%

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Forecasts, data, and discussion for Australian elections

Why are One Nation’s preference flows falling?

How can we predict the One Nation vote at the upcoming Victorian election?

Victorian State Election

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Why are One Nation’s preference flows falling?

How can we predict the One Nation vote at the upcoming Victorian election?

Victorian State Election

Join the conversation

Preston Forecast, ALP Hold

Thoughts on my model for Victoria?