loan_wolf03 · 22 Oct 2026
Preston Forecast, ALP Hold
In response to battlesnake, my estimate for Preston. This becomes reasonably close at the 3CP but GRN still has quite a bit to go to gain on ALP, which would have to fall to third in the 3CP for GRN to win.
I also feel that my first preferences and flows are quite favourable to the greens so I’d be interested to see where they could pick up enough support to overtake labor.
Electorate forecast
Preston
Victoria
First preference
Eliminated now: OTH.
- ALP26.0%−11.6%
- LIB21.0%+3.7%
- ONP17.00%+17.0%
- GRN17.00%+1.9%
- VS8.0%+1.8%
- IND6.0%−7.7%
- OTH5.0%−5.1%
Distributed preferences from OTH
Current composition (share of this candidate's bar):
- ALP13.4%
- LIB4.8%
- ONP30.9%
- GRN31.7%
- VS11.5%
- IND7.7%
Total: 100.0%
1 comment
battlesnake · 22 Oct 2026
I mean as I see it, those first preferences don’t seem very generous. One nation seems high, I’d argue 15pt on one nation and 19 for greens is a better place to start. From there I’d also expect VS to be a tad higher. All up, the greens should have no issue overtaking labor on the 3CP in my opinion.