Thoughts on my model for Victoria?

Certainly reasonable but obviously that’s a very optimistic scenario for the greens, this almost puts one nation as the opposition, which I think would be a stretch.

Narre Warrens and Cranbourne I’m not sure about, they have some strong incumbents. Same for Mordialloc, Oakleigh, Ashwood I believe.

Mildura I think will be one nation, but I agree with Essendon. I can honestly see Benambra going independent too. My hot take is Gippsland East going to one nation as well, particularly with the retiring incumbent.

Plausible but you have ALP outperforming where they’re at serious risk (in my opinion) in seats such as Lara, Bendigo West, South Barwon, and Wendouree while losing in some reasonably safer seats such as Thomastown, Narre Warrens, Oakleigh, etc. not saying those seats are safe, but I would’ve thought of them as more at-risk than some of the others you have them holding.

Maybe if we could see your predicted margins it’d make it easier, but overall I tend to agree it’s reasonable. What’s your logic for Preston? Maybe post a separate forecast for that seat.